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The foreign policy problem is heating up, how does it affect the US presidential election? 0
(Dan Tri) – Normally, when voting for president, American voters are mainly interested in domestic issues.
US President Joe Biden is expected to face a difficult re-election campaign next year.
According to conventional political thinking, the influence of foreign affairs on elections is not much.
Besides, foreign goals sometimes conflict with domestic goals.
However, in the context of a series of international crises – from Ukraine to the Middle East – challenging US leadership on a global scale, some analysts point out that foreign affairs could become one of the
`We may be witnessing a rare phenomenon: An election focused on foreign policy,` Mr. Mark Hannah, an expert at the Eurasia Group research institute, wrote in the Los Angeles Times.
Foreign policy in voters’ calculations
According to the latest survey published by the Wall Street Journal in early December, only 5% of American voters polled considered foreign policy an issue that would decide their vote in 2024. Overall, foreign affairs ranked first.
However, compared to the survey conducted 4 months earlier, the number of voters choosing foreign affairs has doubled, from 2% to 5%, helping this field jump 4 places from the bottom of the priority list.
Besides, low priority does not mean Americans are completely uninterested in foreign affairs.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas also received roughly the same amount of attention: 43% considered it a `very important` issue, 33% considered it an `important` issue, while only 7% considered it not important at all.
In the book `The Commander-in-Chief Test`, American scholar Jeffrey A. Friedman points out that voters are not only interested in the policies of presidential candidates on each issue.
Instead, from foreign policy, voters want a broader assessment: They want to know whether the candidate is strong enough to protect national interests and deal with America’s opponents in the international arena.
Some Republican candidates themselves, notably Ms. Nikki Haley, also tend to emphasize their views on foreign affairs during the election campaign, Politico said.
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Nikki Haley is a candidate who can benefit if the US election focuses on foreign affairs (Photo: AFP).
Ms. Haley’s decision is not difficult to understand.
According to Mr. Bill Strong, one of Ms. Haley’s campaign team members, many donors believe that foreign affairs experience is an asset that she needs to take advantage of.
Current US presidents often benefit from foreign affairs.
Some analysts say that if possible, Mr. Biden will try to direct voters’ attention to foreign affairs.
Senator Chris Coons, co-chairman of President Biden’s re-election committee, praised Mr. Biden for having more experience than all other candidates in handling relations with foreign leaders such as Russian President Vladimir Putin.
`It is important that the American people have a president who is solid and trustworthy in the international arena. This will be an important factor to help them make decisions in the 2024 election,` Mr. Coons said.
American historian Michael Beschloss points out that some presidents can also be rewarded handsomely for their foreign policy decisions.
`Voters sometimes re-elect presidents who did the right things – even though they were unpopular with the people. An example is FDR (President Franklin D. Roosevelt – Reporter) in 1940, after the general mobilization of the country
Mr. Biden’s problem
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A protest in support of Palestine at Harvard University (USA) in early October. (Photo: Reuters).
However, foreign affairs is not entirely President Biden’s strong point.
At the end of November, former President Donald Trump’s campaign staff released a 30-second promotional video attacking Mr. Biden’s foreign policy, according to NBC.
Taking up most of the ad’s space is the image of Mr. Trump with American soldiers.
Immediately after that, an image of President Biden tripping on the stairs to the plane appeared.
`A weak leader can cause a tragic loss of American life. This is why America needs strength more than ever,` a commentary voice said in the background of the documentary at the ceremony to welcome the remains.
It is no coincidence that Afghanistan was chosen by Mr. Trump’s election team.
After 13 American soldiers were killed in a terrorist attack on Kabul airport, the trend of support for the new president quickly reversed, causing him to never be able to achieve the same level of voter support as before.
Survey data on Americans’ views on foreign affairs still have many inconsistencies, making it difficult for Mr. Biden to accurately assess his support.
However, another survey conducted by Bloomberg and consulting firm Morning Consult in early November in 7 battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada) showed that American voters trust the former President.
Public opinion may also worsen if the crisis persists: According to a CBS News survey, the number of people supporting Mr. Biden’s policy on the Israel-Hamas conflict in early December decreased by 5
American history has witnessed a number of presidents `failing` because of foreign affairs, notably Lyndon Johnson – who did not run for re-election when the wave of opposition to the Vietnam War rose in the US in the late 1960s.
Mr. Nathan Gonzales, senior political analyst at the Public Affairs Council (PAC), said that the last election in which foreign affairs was the policy focus took place in 2006. At that time, in the context of
`Presidents who take political risks and engage deeply in foreign affairs may be praised by later historians. However, contemporary voters may not think so,` historian Michael Beschloss