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How long will Russia's military campaign in Ukraine last? 0
(Dan Tri) – Research facilities’ reports have commented on Russia’s losses as well as Moscow’s efforts to continue the war in Ukraine.
Russian tanks in Donetsk, Eastern Ukraine in 2022 (Photo: Reuters).
According to a report published this week by the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Russia can maintain the conflict in Ukraine `for another two or three years`, but it will require sacrifices.
The IISS report estimates that Russia has lost more tanks on the battlefield in Ukraine than at the start of the military campaign nearly two years ago, but these losses cannot bring the conflict to a `sooner end`.
`Despite losing an average of hundreds of armored vehicles and artillery systems each month, Russia has been able to maintain a stable number of active weapons by reactivating old systems, strengthening industry capabilities
IISS estimates Russia could `maintain the conflict in Ukraine for another two or three years, maybe even longer`.
The report was issued as Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine prepares to enter the two-year mark, with Moscow forces conducting a series of attacks along a nearly 1,000km long front line to disrupt the situation.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is shifting to a more defensive posture after last summer’s much-anticipated counteroffensive failed to achieve the desired results, and Kiev struggles with manpower limitations and
The US Senate on February 13 passed a foreign aid bill worth $95.3 billion, including $60 billion in support for Ukraine, creating a confrontation with the House of Representatives when House Speaker Mike Johnson
In its annual military balance report, IISS said global defense spending rose 9% to a record $2.2 trillion in 2023, as the world faces an `era of instability`.
The report said Russia’s military campaign has prompted European countries to increase defense spending and strengthen NATO, but most of the additional budget resources are `allocated to overcome the following shortcomings.`
The report notes that the European Union is on track to `largely` miss its target to supply Ukraine with 1 million 155mm artillery shells by March.
`Western governments are once again in the position of having to decide whether to provide Kiev with enough weapons to deliver a decisive blow, or just enough weapons so that Kiev does not lose,` IISS Director General
Heavy losses
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Russia is said to have lost many tanks during the military campaign in Ukraine (Photo: Reuters).
Although Russia has suffered major losses in armored vehicles since February 2022, IISS said `there are few signs that Russia will end the fighting anytime soon.`
The IISS report tracked fleets of main battle tanks (MBTs), armored personnel carriers (APCs), infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) and other vehicles from both Russia and Ukraine.
According to IISS, Ukraine’s number of active MBTs `remains close to pre-war levels`, while the number of the country’s APCs and IFVs `increased thanks to Western support`.
Meanwhile, the report said Russia lost more than 3,000 armored fighting vehicles in the past year alone, but this was offset by Moscow’s reactivation of about 1,200 MBTs and nearly 2,500 IFVs and APCs from its stockpiles.
The report concludes that Russia can maintain its current rate of attrition for up to three years and possibly longer.
The report also details how the Russian economy, despite international sanctions, remains resilient and that Russia has increased defense spending for 2024.
The UK’s Royal Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI) published a report this week on Russia’s changing military capabilities and objectives.
`Russia still maintains its strategic goal of controlling Ukrainian territories. Now they believe they are winning,` the RUSI report said.
According to RUSI, Russia will seek to achieve the goal in three stages.
First, Russia will continue to apply pressure along Ukraine’s front lines, consuming the country’s ammunition and manpower.
`In parallel with this effort, Russian Special Forces were tasked with disrupting efforts from Ukraine’s international partners to continue providing military aid,` RUSI said.
Then, when Ukraine’s ammunition stocks are depleted, Russia will launch new offensive operations to create a significant advantage on the battlefield, in an attempt to gain leverage over Kiev `to force Kiev to surrender.`
The report predicts Russia is planning to achieve this victory by 2026.
However, the report emphasizes that this outcome could have been prevented `if Ukraine’s partners continued to provide sufficient ammunition and training support` to the Ukrainian armed forces to prevent attacks by
`If Russia has no prospect of achieving gains by 2025, due to its inability to improve the quality of its forces for offensive operations, it will have difficulty forcing Kiev to surrender by 2026,` the report said.
Up to now, many predictions have been made about the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
In an article for Le Point magazine in January, scientist and political analyst Bruno Tetre predicted the Russia-Ukraine conflict would end in Moscow’s favor and what was left of Ukraine would lie
According to Bruno Tetre, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end in October 2025.
Meanwhile, Mr. Aleksey Arestovich, former advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said that the conflict will last until 2035.
Bloomberg last September quoted a senior G7 official as saying that the Ukraine conflict could last another 6-7 years.
Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said the conflict in Ukraine was frozen and could last until 2029 or 2030.